What measures are shipping companies taking to navigate around conflict zones like the Red Sea and Black Sea?
07.06.2025 18:28
I know I have painted a massive problem which you may not have understood even existed. This problem affects the daily lives of just about everyone on earth. The war situation in the Red Sea is choking off about 1/3 of the world trade. The war situation with China has made shippers very nearly terrified to even be in the areas near China. That is another 1/3 of trade at high risk. World trade is choking to a halt and not because of COVID-19 like you have been told. It is choking over this war risk.
It was not until after the Spainish-American War that the USA really asserted itself in world trade. The USA to this day is quite unique in this regard that it isn’t a pirate navy. Most other navies around the world are to some degree or another “pirates”. The only period of “not piracy” for these other navies was a period of “cooperation” with the USA that developed after WW2. I am sorry for the big powers like France, England and Russia but they have always had a strong tendancy towards piracy.. Don’t excuse it off it was American dominance after WW2 that broke this up. To this day they have the perchant “to hoist the Jolly Rodger” flag (not literally but by metaphor) in such national fleets.
Curiously it is actually improved by the infrequency of Hurricanes and similar storms. While the “Climate Change” SCAMMERS are yelling so much trade is actually improved over diminshed storms of the past few years. (since 2005) How long this can continue at this low level of storms? It is anybody’s guess. NOAA dumping their 2024 Hurricane Forecast which I have pointed out repeatedly is pure fraud and “Eco-Terrorism” there a major “wet blanket” on world trade. It did so in the middle of the time most necessary for good world trade with the war situation going on. If you want to understand how a US Government report can affect world trade, watch the movie “Trading Places” and notice the issue of a “crop report.”
The reason I included the area North of Austalia was to show you the Straits between Malaysia and Indonesia that choke point trade as well. This areas and from Philippines west and North to Japan is fast becoming a war zone as well.
You may wonder why I would know this amazing game and the players and their results. My family was one of those families that built and guarded the very means and methods of your survival. No nothing some history books tell. But my family was there and did it! I know the game very well and I keep track of the game.
It is very important that you understand weather impacts here. It is hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere. This means the Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and Central to North Atlantic Ocean are all dangerous for travel quite severely. It is one of the reasons that the Persion Gulf and area around India is quite thinned out. Also the Geopolitical situation markes the entier Arabian area as a war zone.
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Here is a map of all of the ships tracking AIS on the oceans in view of this map.
Hurricane season in the North Atlantic generally makes the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and Cariibean Sea a risky affair for about 4 months of the year. Similarly the winter storms mess it up for about 4 months a year. Sea States a condition of high waves makes sailing around even within long distances from such big storms at least very difficult if not too dangerous. For example as I write a hurricane is traversing the US and Canadian Maritime locations out to sea. This is making the sea states as far as Charleston SC to as far as the Bay of Biscay in France very stressful for ships. So rerouting is difficult.
World Trade and security are all pinned in this complex background. China for example has their national economy cut back about 35% right now due to the trade situation. This is unstabling their government and the effects will be global.
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Shipping by ships is largely restricted to moderate or low value trade because of a feature of trade now being accentuated by this issue of this question, that is called inventory turns. A merchant makes money completely on Inventory Turns. This is how many times he can cycle his money through trade a year. Trade that is low margin can wait for a ship. Trade that is high margin is by necessity is driven to aircraft.
I am a citizen of the USA and in November Election 2024 I will do my part to shut down this pirate game.
The US Navy has been quite dominant and most other major nations have behaved themselves mostly up until recently. With the unsettled situation of the South China Sea and of the area of the Red Sea and between Turkey and Egypt the situation is not being all that secure all up and down the Red Sea and such. The Black Sea is also pretty lawless as well.
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This is the issue that the Environmentalist yelling and bitching and moaning about aricraft and their CO2 emissions don’t understand. The single highes margin trade on earth is actual human cargo. This is your merchants and businessmen traveling to do trade in our world. Without them all other trade doesn’t happen. This Environmentalist claim against business jets and against aviation in general denies the reality that Aircraft are the most efficient way to carry their cargo. A missed business trip might well cripple an entire nation. Don’t think for one moment that you could put that man/woman on a ship for said trade.
If you study the number of miles of submarine data transmission cables and the infrastructure in satellite data networks you begin to realize that their cargo is the information in this game.
I am not very sympathetic with powers like Russia and China for their part in this mess. I make no excuses for the USA’s problems in this mess. Many people make take my telling you this as Partisan. It is not. Frankly I am pissed off at many of the Republicans in the USA (Lindsey Graham for example but not limited to him) over their cooperation with this sick game.
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The whole earth is in very deep trouble over this mess. We are on a knife’s edge about to slide into World War that will be far more destructive than any of us can imagine because of this mess. The very food you eat, the fuel you burn, the goods in your markets and even your job and life of your family anywhere on earth suffers with what is going on.
Another movie that you might want to watch to understand this situation is “Hillary’s America” It lays this out pretty well.
The development of marine drone warfare, which really isn’t much different from Torpedos of the past, except it is much smarter in guidance, this has made even sailing national Navies in areas at risk. I don’t think the USA is willing to risk it’s big carriers or major warships to such. The range of such warfare and its evasive nature make countermeasures most difficult. So rerouting ships is fast becoming “Not an Option”.
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This piracy condition is by no means new and is getting worse. It was wild and crazy with pirates and trade was essentially shut down in these areas about 1700. It is only the arrival of the USA on the scene with President Thomas Jefferson that the USA cut into this piracy making world trade even possible. The big powers of Europe at that time really didn’t stop piracy. They would have qualified more as pirates than stopping it.
I sometimes think people just don’t understand the level of dependence we have in our world on peaceful trade and why the NOAA is so important for the entire earth. NOAA could easily be only attentive to USA areas. Its mission is global because of these trade issues just on the weather situation. The advent of GPS and other navigation aids as global matters has made alternative trade much easier. Prior to WW2 and during it, navigation of ships was primarily either “dead reconing” or hugging the shore lines. Today it is so easy for the captain of a ship to know exactly where he is, but with GPS jamming that is becoming unsafe.
I suppose in asking this question you had no idea how this world trade network worked. Honestly simple “binary” answers do it no justice. If you will note, I have not even included land based trade, air, water and data transmission in this discussion. Maybe now you will have at least a tiny peephole understanding of what is really running your world. Even I don’t claim to know more than a fraction of it. I don’t even think one person or even group of people could fully comprehend it. Do remember that the most uniform description of national governments around the world and even some of the best of them are NOTHING BUT PIRATES!
You migth ask why are the ships not passing south of Africa, South America and Australia much. This is both fuel and weather related. It is Antarctic winter now and the situation is that heavy sea states make shipping south of about 45 degrees south quite hazardous at this time.
What may not be clear to you from what I have presented here is that the situation of all critical trade routes is fast becoming a war zone. That shuts down trade. It makes source of supply issues become critical to move on shore for nations in the world.
The people pushing this agenda are not actually the people you see in the news and claiming to be Environmentalists. Those pushing this agenda are like the players (Big traders) in the movie “Trading Places” and those people are not nice people. They are predators on humanity. The whole “Green Agenda” is nothing but manipulations and scams to profit these elite traders.
I left out the arctic regions because it is too few ships to be relevant to this answer. (8/20/2024 6:45 AM CDT)
If it is not clear the war situation is much wider spread than you have been told in the news. The number of adversary players is pretty close to 300 involved here. (Not all are nations) This is a developing Global War. Together with the seasonality of the weather and very heavy sea states, due to hurricanes/typhoons etc, much of the world trade routes are most difficult. Navy forces are fast having to “convoy” ships.
The biggest shipping routes on Earth are dominated by the Red Sea and also the area of the straits near Singapore. The volume of traffic through these locations is profoundly constricted by time and by distance to avoid them.
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It is very important that you do not imagine that world governments are much more than Pirates. The USA is the only major exception. NATO and EU are mostly kept in place as a result of US structures after WW2 and these are unraveling due to the USA not being a “honest boker” in the situation. This is forcing so many trade situations.
I have recently place myself into much effort to try to get the Africans to clean up their status and to stop being minor players in the game. It is a matter of their survival that they do this. I am concerned very much of the situations in South America as well. It is very easy to let “events” blind you to the realities that are much more broad. You have to see these matters as sort of like a weather map and understand that the whole system is interconnected.
A ship that doesn’t take the Suez Canal doesn’t pay fees to Egypt. Egypt cannot pay enough army and police. Their domestic situation goes unstable. That sets loose forces in Sudan and Ethiopia, clear down to Kenya. That messes up trade with Iran and Pakistan. It is an endless set of ripples here. There are many many ripples. Just like waves on the ocean that travel until they break on the shore and even then reflect back to sea, the events you are tracking in your news are like rogue waves that are nothing but the sum of all the other waves.
There are a lot of problems with shipping and navigation and safety from pirates, and rogue nations attacking shipping. They are not just in the locations you hear about in the news.
Actually while not detailing it all out for you, I have disclosed the game of the big financial players of our world and the games they are playing. It would take the Biden/Harris administration about 1 day to have the Red Sea situation slammed shutdown. The Houthi Government there would be a smoking pile of rubble at the end and ships would sail freely. But these big players are squeezing the Europeans, Africans and Arabians for every dollar in their virtual pirate ring.
You have to understand that piracy is not new to our world and is definitely not gone. Virtually all of the coasts of Africa and the region between India east to the Philippines is one endless sea of pirates. The US Navy and they are not the only player here intecepts pirates probably 5 to 10 times a day in these areas. South American and the Caribbean Sea area are also heavy with piracy. This has always been this way.
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Obviously I have not noted the area of the Eastern Pacific or the Western Atlantic over to Europe. Pirates and national malicious parties have little access to this region as the USA will blow them out of the water if they try. Recently Russia tried to assert and does have an annoyance fleet in the area near the Bahamas and Cuba.
Also note that I have not included in my discussion Air Freight. At this time the value of Air Freight is probably larger than the ship trade in money value. It is however not “bulk carrier” trade. Soon we will have point to point travel via similar to “Starship” from SpaceX. This will impose another carrier mode. While Starship or similar will be restricted to ultra money dense freight it will be the most value.
The problem is that the US Government at this time is dominated by the Democrat Party which is best seen in the light of the violence at the DNC in Chicago going on as I write. They are pirates and with the Biden/Harris “whole of government” approach they have become the world’s biggest “Virtual Pirates” and their leaders are trading like in the movie “Trading Places” to advantage using this methodology of piracy. You can steal a lot more this way that with a trivial pirate group in the North Yemen area.